• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0593

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 18:47:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111846=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-112045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0593
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0146 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...and the
    western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111846Z - 112045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A loosely-organized squall line may be capable of damaging
    winds as it continues east along the Gulf Coast. However, confidence
    in this threat is low, and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent velocity data from KMOB shows outflow associated
    with a weak and loosely organized squall line becoming slightly more
    organized as it propagates to the east across southwestern AL and
    into the FL Panhandle. VWP observations from KMOB show 20-30 knots
    winds in the lowest 2-3 km associated with this line, which is
    supported by recent observed wind gusts up to 25 knots at the
    surface. While severe winds do not appear likely in the near term,
    the potential for damaging winds may increase over the next 1-3
    hours as the line moves into southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL
    Panhandle where low-level lapse rates are steepening to 7-8 C/km
    amid modest daytime heating. The environment ahead of this line
    remains supportive for storm maintenance, but it is not immediately
    clear if the damaging wind potential will be realized along the
    entire line - mainly due to weak low-level shear in the lowest 4 km.
    Pockets of intensification are noted in GOES IR imagery over the
    past 30 minutes, which suggests that at least localized strong winds
    are possible. Due to the low confidence in a more widespread/robust
    severe threat, a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oP1E7iQsDVcDg7t1-pPddSjnHhR0xCFhHTxl7GINYfMvvO6EAuiEyaDyd3mybEns4M7cZbT_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31398810 31858797 32168747 32368612 32418533 32298476
    31718439 31008445 30178501 30048536 30298602 30378661
    30328707 30278761 30288793 30928802 31398810=20



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