• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0592

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 18:23:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111823
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111822=20
    TXZ000-112045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0592
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the lower Pecos into lower Rio Grande
    Valley vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111822Z - 112045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are initiating, mainly across the
    higher terrain of Coahuila, but may be slow to develop eastward.=20
    Once a propagation into lower elevations commences, activity
    probably will pose a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts
    across and east of the Rio Grande River. It is possible that this
    might not occur until after 4-5 PM CDt.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are initiating along the higher terrain,
    as far north as the lower Pecos Valley, but generally southeast
    through south of the Texas Big Bend, across Coahuila. Mid 70s
    surface dew points have advected west of the Rio Grande, toward the
    higher terrain, contributing to large CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg,
    in the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric.

    Given somewhat modest (20-30 kt) west-southwesterly ambient
    deep-layer mean flow, and lingering inhibition associated with
    elevated mixed-layer air to the east of the higher terrain, activity
    might be slow to develop off the higher terrain. However, given the
    the number of storms, merging convection and consolidating outflows
    probably will contribute to upscale growth that should eventually
    surge off the higher terrain, into and across the Rio Grande Valley
    later this afternoon. It remains unclear just how this might
    evolve, but there appears strong enough shear beneath the
    subtropical jet, across and south of the Del Rio vicinity, to
    support the evolution of an organized convective system, perhaps
    preceded by discrete supercell development. Some of this activity
    may pose a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter,
    along with strong, damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!olxjKP2DhIZ0tKJ6flCXiPM8tk7766XtB1J0YL9J3-rF-vRHjb5VpGCXfSCZAxZbln5mGrXY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29500229 30240282 30520198 30100107 29550044 29059980
    28469944 27889936 27569977 26830047 27320138 27530166
    27790172 28740195 29500229=20



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