• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0591

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 17:12:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111712
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111712=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-111915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0591
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1212 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...North Florida and south-central Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111712Z - 111915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
    develop by the mid to late afternoon hours. One or two severe storms
    are possible, but the threat will likely remain too limited to
    warrant a watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown
    scattered convective showers developing over northern FL and
    southern GA in the vicinity of a diffuse confluence axis. GOES IR
    imagery shows fairly warm cloud tops, indicating that deeper
    convection has not yet been achieved. However, surface temperatures
    are warming into the low 80s and will likely reach surface-based
    parcel convective temperatures by mid afternoon as warming continues
    into the mid/upper 80s. Modified morning soundings from north FL
    suggest MLCAPE is increasing upwards of 500 J/kg, and recent RAP
    analyses show a similar trend that will likely continue through the
    remainder of the day. Lift within the weak confluence axis may allow
    for isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon.
    While this region is on the periphery of stronger upper-level flow
    to the north, 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear should support
    some storm organization and the potential for an isolated wind/hail
    threat. Mean deep-layer flow along the confluence axis will likely
    favor clusters of storms that may favor a wind threat over severe
    hail, but the overall threat is expected to be fairly isolated and a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!toIDMgJV_C4WFdrj0Ov9YiN0SUY9cPW_bVPAcjJ8u-4W46K-cAwAl4dEhLdq-f_45P8JUC1v$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31068455 31458395 31588310 31648240 31638146 31418104
    30628110 29998136 29598245 29598351 29758442 29948492
    30518491 31068455=20



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