• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0590

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 15:14:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111514
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111513=20
    TXZ000-111615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0590
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1013 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central through northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111513Z - 111615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to initiate and
    become increasingly widespread north through northeast of the
    Edwards Plateau and adjacent Big Country through the Interstate
    30/20 corridors by Noon to 2 PM CDT. This may include at least some
    risk for severe hail early, with potential to organize later this
    afternoon, if not before. It is not yet certain a watch will be
    needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
    possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Latest model output indicates a substantial
    strengthening of large-scale ascent north/northeast of the Edwards
    Plateau, across parts of the Texas Big Country through the
    Interstates 30/20 corridors of north central and northeast Texas by
    17-19Z. This is forecast to occur in response to strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly
    divergent high-level flow, as a west-southwesterly subtropical jet
    streak continues to nose across the northern Mexican Plateau through
    the Texas Gulf coast vicinity.

    This lift will largely be focused above at least shallow cool/stable surface-based air to the north of stalled/slow moving frontal zone
    now extending across the upper Texas coastal plain through parts of
    Deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley. However,
    seasonably moist air above the frontal inversion, and beneath steep
    lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air, is
    contributing to moderate to large CAPE, supportive of vigorous
    thunderstorm development.

    While high-level flow is strong, lower/mid tropospheric flow is
    somewhat modest to weak. Coupled with the likelihood for
    increasingly widespread convection through midday and early
    afternoon, hail potential in the longer term remains unclear.=20
    However, given the initial thermodynamic profiles, there may be a
    window of opportunity for large hail in the initially more discrete
    early storm development.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qHki8AIQrPmxkQjFGGDVig7VqXzNkcvedY48KS3jgZdZ9-ZWj-uzYazUXwpsVED7r526J-1A$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32609949 32959809 33149610 32439453 31079569 30959757
    30349983 30570081 31300040 32609949=20



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