• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0589

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 09:45:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110945
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110944=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-111145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0589
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0444 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...far southeastern New Mexico and portions of West
    Texas and the Texas South Plains region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 110944Z - 111145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of producing large hail may
    occur across portions of the Texas South Plains/Transpecos region
    and far southeastern New Mexico.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a lone, robust storm that has
    developed over Lea county in far southeastern New Mexico. The storm
    is occurring within a thermodynamic environment featuring steep
    lapse rates/strong elevated CAPE above a surface-based stable layer.
    Ascent has increased across this area, as warm advection associated
    with a strong south-southeasterly low-level jet is ongoing, ahead of
    a subtle, eastward-moving cyclonic disturbance evident on water
    vapor imagery just south of El Paso.=20=20

    Additional, isolated storm development appears possible, as the
    low-level jet persists and this aforementioned disturbance shifts
    into/across far West Texas. Given the abundant, elevated CAPE and
    moderate mid-level westerly flow, updraft rotation is supported. As
    such, a few additional storms capable of producing large hail may
    evolve over the next couple of hours, but at this time coverage
    appears likely to remain limited. We will monitor evolution, but at
    this time, it is expected that the risk will remain sparse enough
    not to warrant WW issuance.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sDc6fOyJ4CCpu-AWPMDE5dN-MnvsPo2wUgZpUvysa7V96wWt8Pin7lEGMnm9mfBKVo-1T36m$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30740408 32610357 33510258 33770141 33800042 33079987
    31650037 30840197 30570364 30740408=20



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