• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0588

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 01:01:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110101
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110101=20
    TXZ000-110300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0588
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0801 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

    Areas affected...South-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162...

    Valid 110101Z - 110300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will continue
    across parts of south-central Texas over the next few hours. Weather
    watch issuance may be needed to the east of WW 162 as the storms
    move toward the edge of the watch later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows a cluster of severe
    thunderstorms located about 100 statute miles to the southeast of
    Del Rio. These storms are moving to the left of the mean wind, which
    will take them northeastward along a gradient of strong instability.
    The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg extending from
    the storms northeastward to the edge of WW 162. RAP forecast
    soundings along this corridor early this evening show 0-6 km shear
    near 55 kt and have 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km. This
    environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. As the
    storms continue to move northeastward, the wind-damage threat could
    increase, especially if the cells organize into a short-line segment
    across the southern Texas Hill Country.

    ..Broyles.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sJ8UqPKKRDhrX-QHQdgiAJvBQaB-96mr_rltt_pjhlZgmPI--oVW464x5yQ9lzwxEfF0JzDZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28239989 28739827 29249836 29749849 30039863 29739928
    28950013 28239989=20



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