• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0586

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 23:05:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102305
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102305=20
    TXZ000-110130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0586
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0605 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

    Areas affected...South-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 102305Z - 110130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop across parts of
    south-central Texas this evening. Large hail and wind damage will be
    possible. Weather watch issuance may be needed as cell coverage
    increases over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Del Rio, Texas shows a
    cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms to the east of the Sierra
    Madre Oriental mountain range. These storms are moving through far
    northern Mexico and will cross the international border over the
    couple of hours. The airmass near and to the east of the lower Rio
    Grande Valley is strongly unstable, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE
    in the 3500 to 4500 J/k range. Surface dewpoints are near 70 F. This thermodynamic environment also includes steep lapse rates in the
    mid-levels, approaching 8.0 C/km according to the RAP. This will be
    favorable for large hail. Forecast models suggest that supercells
    with a left-moving tendency will be possible. As the cells move into south-central Texas later this evening, the wind-damage threat could
    increase, especially if a cold pool can organize. Weather watch
    issuance may be needed under this scenario.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tiWoJyGYAz2xcL-TyjLErh3Tgz0FRZiqfUtxENad2WncVsooQY3H-di6LY3o3yjI1lBcOyGo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28739801 28649767 28389753 27919756 27689776 27549840
    27399939 27709991 28250013 28569956 28739801=20



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