• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0585

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 22:48:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102248
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102247=20
    TXZ000-110015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0585
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0547 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102247Z - 110015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible through the
    evening. Large hail will be the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have formed along a nearly stationary frontal
    boundary in eastern Texas. The airmass south of this boundary is
    very unstable with MLCAPE around 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Additionally,
    effective shear of 45 to 50 knots will be sufficient for updraft
    organization. However, storm intensity may remain muted due to the
    storm orientation and competing updrafts as well as a tendency for
    storms to drift to the cool side of the boundary and become
    elevated. Due to these factors, the greatest severe weather threat
    will likely be on the western periphery of the cluster as it grows
    upscale where the best instability and best chance for uninterrupted
    updrafts will be. A few large hail and damaging wind reports may be
    possible, but the threat is expected to remain too
    localized/isolated to necessitate a watch

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qrcArIPYDC1aEf2UtgxjYfuzJ1b5pU1jjbrD--hoxei-FYQQvIRq5F9F0NOvrKg8k9KxsDhN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 30889622 31179476 31039395 30859377 30659372 30409447
    30269558 30279612 30339626 30539644 30889622=20



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