• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0584

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 22:23:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102223
    SPC MCD 102222=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0584
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0522 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana...Southwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 102222Z - 110045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A large hail threat and isolated wind-damage threat will
    likely continue for a few more hours across northeast Louisiana. The wind-damage threat could increase, which would necessitate weather
    watch issuance, possibly as far east as southwest Mississippi.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery out of Shreveport shows a
    bowing line segment about 40 statute miles southeast of Shreveport.
    The line is elevated, and located to the north of a front that is
    oriented east-to-west from northeast Texas into southwest
    Mississippi. The RAP is estimating MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/km
    range along this corridor. This storm is likely being supported by a
    subtle shortwave trough. 500 mb winds associated with the trough are
    westerly in the 40 to 50 kt range, which is resulting in sufficient
    effective shear for a severe threat. Large hail will continue to be
    the main threat over the next hours.

    However, further to the east, surface-based instability is greater
    with an axis of instability located near the front across southwest Mississippi. As this storm moves eastward toward this axis of
    instability, the storm could become more closely surface-based,
    resulting in an increased wind-damage threat. If this happens, then
    weather watch issuance could be needed across parts of far northeast
    Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sSAGC0Cr2U96n3UPsq87OSVTT-xX9rZlR82H_yOJTaj3mYkcEZkfQzQWK5EUKfZ0-gl2TSIU$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31458994 31259069 31439221 31489263 31609302 31859306
    32109298 32319284 32449255 32379214 32309128 32058995

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