Mesoscale Discussion 0584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021
Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana...Southwest Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 102222Z - 110045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A large hail threat and isolated wind-damage threat will
likely continue for a few more hours across northeast Louisiana. The wind-damage threat could increase, which would necessitate weather
watch issuance, possibly as far east as southwest Mississippi.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery out of Shreveport shows a
bowing line segment about 40 statute miles southeast of Shreveport.
The line is elevated, and located to the north of a front that is
oriented east-to-west from northeast Texas into southwest
Mississippi. The RAP is estimating MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/km
range along this corridor. This storm is likely being supported by a
subtle shortwave trough. 500 mb winds associated with the trough are
westerly in the 40 to 50 kt range, which is resulting in sufficient
effective shear for a severe threat. Large hail will continue to be
the main threat over the next hours.
However, further to the east, surface-based instability is greater
with an axis of instability located near the front across southwest Mississippi. As this storm moves eastward toward this axis of
instability, the storm could become more closely surface-based,
resulting in an increased wind-damage threat. If this happens, then
weather watch issuance could be needed across parts of far northeast
Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.
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