• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0582

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 19:08:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101908
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101907=20
    TXZ000-102100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0582
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Texas...northwest through
    north of the Greater Houston area

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101907Z - 102100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorm development is possible by
    the 4-6 PM CDT time frame, if not before. This could include a
    supercell or two, posing a risk for large, damaging hail, strong
    wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado. While
    probabilities for a severe weather watch still appear low due to the
    somewhat uncertain and isolated nature of the threat, trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Attempts at deep convective development have been
    ongoing near the intersection of a remnant convectively generated or
    enhanced surface boundary and a stalling surface cold front, roughly
    near the Huntsville vicinity. This is occurring in the presence of
    an environment conditionally supportive of considerable severe
    weather potential, characterized by seasonably high boundary-layer
    moisture content, relatively steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
    rates, and large CAPE. Deep-layer shear is also strong near/beneath
    a seasonably strong subtropical jet.

    Forecast soundings suggest that at least weakly capping mid-level
    layers are still present across the region, and mid/upper forcing
    for ascent to contribute to further erosion of this capping remains
    unclear. However, various model output, including the NAM and Rapid Refresh/High Resolution Rapid Refresh have been suggestive that the
    initiation of at least an isolated storm or two is possible during
    the 4-6 PM CDT, if not before.

    If inhibition weakens sufficiently to support a sustained storm,
    this may include a period of rapid intensification, with the
    evolution of a supercell structure or two possible. This could pose
    a risk for large, damaging hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter),
    locally strong surface gusts, and perhaps some potential for a
    tornado.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tyq7if8DEgY8JFmOuiCmbfynisCX2ExKSJ4mC8E5IlZVbZR3vghgmRn_n4099nVw0T7dWrft$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31539538 30999437 30619420 30529489 30469616 30999630
    31539538=20



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