• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0581

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 18:04:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101804=20
    TXZ000-102000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0581
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0104 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

    Areas affected...Southern portions of the Edwards Plateau and
    adjacent Rio Grande Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101804Z - 102000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
    begin to initiate during the 2-4 PM CDT time frame, if not before.=20
    Some of these may undergo a period of rapid intensification by late
    afternoon, with large, damaging hail (up to 3-4+ inches in diameter)
    the most prominent hazard, at least initially.

    DISCUSSION...Beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air,
    daytime heating within a very moist boundary layer is contributing
    to strong destabilization, along and south of the shallow leading
    edge of cool surface-based air which has reached the Pecos River
    vicinity into southern portions of the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country.
    Objective analysis suggests CAPE now exceeds 3000 J/kg, in the
    presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath a 50-60+ kt,
    west-southwesterly subtropical jet.

    Persistent attempts at deep convective development have been ongoing
    in response to focused low-level convergence along the surface front
    across Val Verde and Edwards counties, with initial attempts at
    convective development also underway across the higher terrain of
    northern Coahuila. There is considerable signal in the various
    model output that scattered thunderstorms may begin to initiate
    during the 19-21Z time frame, perhaps aided by a subtle mid-level
    perturbation progressing across and east of the Texas Big Bend
    vicinity.

    Given the environment, once storms initiate, rapid intensification
    into supercells is possible, with strongest storms becoming capable
    of producing very large, damaging hail and locally strong surface
    gusts, as well as perhaps posing some risk for a tornado.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uhbkOQ6Y8pGHyv6asq-Lqti_7V_PqmcyH1cn8dlaFll6269T-O3qESYGLeqkxDznmDp_L0n3$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29670257 29930226 30620207 30520166 30280119 30399978
    29549960 29290043 29150071 28440084 28280195 29050215
    29670257=20



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