• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0580

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 16:51:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101651
    SPC MCD 101651=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0580
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1151 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101651Z - 101845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development may continue well into the
    afternoon hours across eastern North Carolina as temperatures
    continue to warm. A few strong to severe storms are possible and may
    pose a hail/wind risk.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed over the past
    30 minutes in the pre-frontal environment across eastern NC where
    surface temperatures are warming into the upper 70s and low 80s.
    These temperatures are approaching low-level parcel convective
    temperatures per the 12 UTC MHX sounding, which also exhibited weak
    MLCIN and nearly 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A weak mid-level impulse
    propagating across the Mid-Atlantic region (noted in region VWP obs
    and low-level water-vapor imagery) may also be aiding in regional
    ascent. GOES visible imagery shows growing cumulus across eastern
    NC, suggesting that additional thunderstorm development is possible
    in the next 1-2 hours. The Mid-Atlantic is on the periphery of the
    stronger upper-level jet streak to the north, which is supporting
    35-45 knots of effective bulk shear over the region. Organized
    storms will likely pose a hail and wind threat, especially across
    east-central and southeast NC where low-level lapse rates are
    steepening to near 8 C/km. It is unclear how long this threat will
    last before storms move offshore, but additional convection is
    possible later this afternoon as the cold front progresses eastward
    through the state. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch
    is possible.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oTBtCITa-lb_6fDyMEXmQH29yxNDWISbpksqfvlDRd281icMH69H5daoYwe8srr3-E1lXtv2$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34037783 34317853 34927930 35507997 36047986 36427949
    36567865 36747634 36617552 36127538 35427533 35007563
    34717627 34447673 34487722 34037783=20

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