• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0579

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 15:29:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101529
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101528=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-101700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0579
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1028 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

    Areas affected...Red River vicinity of southeastern Oklahoma and
    northeastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101528Z - 101700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm activity might persist into early
    afternoon, perhaps occasionally becoming capable of producing
    marginally severe hail. However, potential for this to evolve into
    something which could require a severe weather watch currently
    appears low.

    DISCUSSION...The shallow leading edge of relatively cool/cold
    surface-based air has surged into the Rio Grande Valley and adjacent
    portions of south central Texas. However, at around the 850 mb
    level, a stronger baroclinic zone generally trails across the Texas
    South Plains, from a weak wave east of the Wichita Falls vicinity,
    and extends east of the wave near the Red River vicinity. An area
    of lift associated with enhanced warm advection in the 850-700 mb
    layer, above the deeper cold air, appears to be providing support
    for ongoing isolated strong thunderstorm development to the east of
    the eastward migrating wave. It appears possible that this could
    continue into the 17-19Z time frame.=20=20

    In the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, moist
    air above the frontal inversion appears to be contributing to CAPE
    in excess of 1000 J/kg, which probably has been occasionally
    supporting marginally severe hail, aided by strong shear in the
    cloud bearing layer. As long as vigorous convection persists, this
    may continue, but severe weather potential otherwise appears rather
    low.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rITTDVdkKEdPT--jvKMieg0RxwjAE20iLiLa4GVbBw0PF_Io6muw8qOkQcKO6Hwu_tLupeVp$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33919714 34079594 33999514 33509453 33309516 33389622
    33409710 33919714=20



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