• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0578

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 02:32:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100232
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100232=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-100430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0578
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0932 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Central Mississippi and Northwestern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...

    Valid 100232Z - 100430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 161. Damaging winds
    remain the primary threat, although large hail and perhaps a tornado
    or two are possible this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few organized clusters/lines of
    storms within or in proximity to WW 161. In eastern portions of the
    watch, a bowing segment with a history of producing wind damage has
    been steadily losing intensity as it progresses southeastward into
    northwest Alabama and northeast/east-central Mississippi. This line
    of storms is encountering an environment worked over by earlier
    convection, and thus less favorable thermodynamic conditions (MUCAPE
    < 1000 J/kg) exist to support organized convection. Still, a few
    damaging wind gusts remain possible with this activity or any storms
    that redevelop in this region in the next few hours.

    Farther west, a couple clusters of storms with transient embedded
    supercell characteristics are entering WW 161. The environment ahead
    of these storms will continue to support organized convection,
    characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective
    bulk shear per SPC Mesoanalysis. The 00z JAN sounding still shows
    near 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, with decent low-level shear
    (e.g., 20 kt 0-1 km shear; near 200 m^2/s^2 0-1 km SRH) and affirms
    the aforementioned kinematic/thermodynamic indices. Damaging winds
    will be the primary threat for threat with this activity, although
    large hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible for the
    remainder of the evening.

    ..Karstens.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ospOv7LgMF0AXvMXtxx15LT-qfWLJGZcyiPoVH_R_yPv4HiUdJE0ikry1AQyg5xaub-sRp0q$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33049146 33619035 34088950 34038834 34258759 34428721
    34178688 33158715 32568853 31309177 31459196 32379187
    32829169 33049146=20



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