• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0577

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 10 01:07:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100107
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100106=20
    TXZ000-100300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0577
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0806 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...

    Valid 100106Z - 100300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A large hail and wind damage threat will continue over the
    next few hours across central Texas. Although the severe threat is
    not expected to move to the southeast of WW 159, the situation will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows two supercell
    thunderstorms ongoing in central Texas. These thunderstorms have
    developed along the northwestern edge of a pocket of strong
    instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg
    range. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front in an area
    of maximized low-level convergence. This is supporting convective
    development in spite of the lack of large-scale ascent. The storms
    are located along the eastern edge of the steeper mid-level lapse
    rates. The RAP is estimating 700-500 mb lapse rate across the Texas
    Hill Country at 7.5 to 8.0 C/km with 0-6 km shear near 50 kt. This
    will continue the threat for supercells with large hail. Hailstones
    of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The southern
    storm has turned southeastward and may affect areas to the northeast
    of the San Antonio Metro along the I-35 corridor later this evening.

    ..Broyles.. 05/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tGg16XImcObXF1cjr0Arw8abqCK1ixj_xVXGHn_kkT1DRyKNO037GLpV8qr8vJGMzHznvm4F$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29629824 29659832 29719838 29759858 29759878 29829895
    29899918 29939967 30099969 30109973 30269974 30289929
    30489929 30499946 30999947 30999912 31449909 31689869
    31769826 31929817 32199759 32249711 32559709 32569654
    32809650 32849593 32999596 33019584 33259574 33359535
    33109538 32939532 32919564 32559559 32329548 31969548
    31799541 31649522 31379492 31129484 31039472 30639458
    30509454 30469482 30599500 30829514 30849525 30919539
    31019542 30869572 30779605 30889615 30959624 30749643
    30739659 30539699 30409743 30149758 29739801 29629824=20



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