• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0576

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 23:40:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092340
    SPC MCD 092340=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0576
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0640 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Mississippi and far Northwest Alabama

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...

    Valid 092340Z - 100045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158

    SUMMARY...Potential bowing segment and corridor of wind damage
    developing the next 1-2 hours. A downstream watch may be considered.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived semi-discrete supercell has crossed the
    Mississippi River, and is beginning to show early indications of
    upscale convective growth and cold-pool organization, per KNQA and
    KGWX radar observations. Should this convective trend continue, a
    corridor of wind damage potential may materialize in the next 1-2
    hours across northern portions of Mississippi. This trend is
    supported by SPC Mesoanalysis, indicating 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
    amid 40-50 of effective bulk shear. Additionally, short-term
    convection allowing models are suggestive of a bowing convective
    segment tracking across this region. It remains uncertain how far
    east the threat will persist, given the weaker
    thermodynamic/kinematic environment over northwest Alabama
    currently. However, should a bowing segment develop, a downstream
    watch may be needed across this area.

    ..Karstens.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u4pzjU-qwAZCYZC2LcARI2ESwXqxVs735HRGTVzKDrtiF2xl64O8DV7KwAahCIBBmcaSWgkI$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33858925 34168991 34568999 34748955 34628834 34048806
    33648858 33858925=20

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