• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0575

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 22:49:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092249
    SPC MCD 092248=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0575
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0548 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Far Eastern Arkansas...Northern
    Mississippi...Northwest Alabama...and Southwestern/Central Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...

    Valid 092248Z - 100015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158

    SUMMARY...Semi-discrete storms capable of large hail, damaging wind
    gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across WW

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a segmented line of convection
    moving southeast through WW 158, extending northeast into portions
    of southwestern Tennessee. Storms thus far have been able to
    maintain semi-discrete within the line, likely attributable to
    strong deep layer shear (effective shear near 50 kt) and decent
    low-level shear (20-25 kt 0-1 km shear) amid modest instability that
    ranges from 2000 J/kg in northern Mississippi to near 1000 J/kg
    across southwest Tennessee. In particular, mid-level lapse rates of
    7-8 C in the 700-500 mb layer will continue to support a large hail
    threat, as indicated in RAP forecast soundings.=20

    Given the persistence of the semi-discrete mode in the short term,
    embedded supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
    a few tornadoes will remain possible during the next couple of
    hours. As the low-level jet begins to strengthen this evening,
    increasing low-level theta-e advection and destabilization should
    allow storms to transition to a linear mode after the 00z-01z time
    frame. Given uncertainty in convective evolution the next few hours,
    downstream watch issuance across portions of central Tennessee and
    northwest Alabama remains unclear, and thus, trends will continue to
    be monitored.

    ..Karstens.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p-TGZygZ_0caZZXE5f5dvEvcusZznELJQhIwF6YRjUpTzNyas3ISifZaDzir0tLrLJ2RExrj$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35449034 35868940 36188778 36108684 35358659 34508707
    34168841 34109065 34489129 35129094 35449034=20

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