• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0574

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 22:41:43 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 092241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092241=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0574
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0541 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Arkansas...Western
    Mississisppi...North-central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...

    Valid 092241Z - 100045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across southern Arkansas,
    far northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana over the next few hours.
    Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will be
    possible with the stronger thunderstorms. A new weather watch is
    being issued downstream across parts of central and northern
    Louisiana.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows two clusters of severe thunderstorms. The first is located in southern Arkansas near a
    pocket of strong instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the
    2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The cells have remained discrete with
    several supercells ongoing. Very large hail (hailstones of greater
    than 2 inches in diameter) will be possible with the strongest of
    cells. A wind damage and isolated tornado threat will also exist,
    especially as low-level flow begins to strengthen over the next 2 to
    3 hours.

    The second are of severe storms are located further to the southwest
    across far east Texas. These storms will move eastward into western
    Louisiana over the next hour. Moderate instability is analyzed
    across western and central Louisiana with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to
    45 kt range. This will support continued supercell development.
    Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. A weather
    watch is being issued for parts of north-central Louisiana at this
    time.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qoyImg4gPiHJrmFBbf8_8bdIsjdSQVKyC-JLGzMf0gPyRg1svtFS5_3IS3CDWu1bodAFGTY3$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 34759176 34599254 33849396 32869472 32099488 31559488
    31189463 30979388 31129264 31269180 31919123 33039051
    33989030 34509080 34689126 34759176=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 22:48:13 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1620600497-1996-9032
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 092248
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092247 COR
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0574
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0547 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Arkansas...Eastern Texas...North-central Louisiana...Western Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...

    Valid 092247Z - 100045Z

    CORRECTED FOR WORDING

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across southern Arkansas,
    far northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana over the next few hours.
    Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will be
    possible with the stronger thunderstorms. A new weather watch is
    being issued downstream across parts of central and northern
    Louisiana.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows two clusters of severe thunderstorms. The first is located in southern Arkansas near a
    pocket of strong instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the
    2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The cells have remained discrete with
    several supercells ongoing. Very large hail (hailstones of greater
    than 2 inches in diameter) will be possible with the strongest of
    cells. A wind damage and isolated tornado threat will also exist,
    especially as low-level flow begins to strengthen over the next 2 to
    3 hours.

    The second area of severe storms are located further to the
    southwest across far east Texas. These storms will move eastward
    into western Louisiana over the next hour. Moderate instability is
    analyzed across western and central Louisiana with 0-6 km shear in
    the 35 to 45 kt range. This will support continued supercell
    development. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.
    A weather watch is being issued for parts of north-central Louisiana
    at this time.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!opFC-xjwUa9OwMiSp8YXakZ5Az7HNJxIqj2NWZUkRm04zianRtBXFwRThUKyIRUvEzP701ND$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 34759176 34599254 33849396 32869472 32099488 31559488
    31189463 30979388 31129264 31269180 31919123 33039051
    33989030 34509080 34689126 34759176=20



    ------------=_1620600497-1996-9032
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

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