• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0573

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 20:53:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092053=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-092300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0573
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest to southern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092053Z - 092300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms moving into southwest Mississippi
    may be capable of isolated damaging winds, especially if an
    organized cold pool can develop. However, the overall potential
    remains low and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms moving into southwest MS has
    a history of transient stronger updraft pulses within the cluster
    over the past 30 minutes per GOES IR imagery. Although this cluster
    is currently unorganized, reflectivity trends from KDGX suggest weak
    cold pool propagation is occurring on the eastern periphery of the
    cluster in line with the mean wind vector. The environment across
    southern MS is generally supportive of organized convection with
    nearly 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and around 30 knots of effective bulk shear
    analyzed in recent RAP mesoanalysis. Additionally, the KDGX VWP
    recently observed 30 knots of 0-3 km bulk shear, which is adequate
    to support further cold pool organization. As such, a damaging wind
    threat may evolve from this cluster as it moves into south-central
    MS, though confidence is this scenario is low. Marginally severe
    hail will also be possible in the near term with any stronger
    updraft pulses, but given the unfavorable storm mode and weak
    forcing for ascent, a persistent hail threat does not appear likely.
    This potential may persist for the next few hours, but a watch is
    not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sMhFa7dKT6m01tqpjvPWDRLlcASGMHJbrfCuHm457CTx4svHv53g8oR5XKTA8WnIDE-Q9kog$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...

    LAT...LON 31799160 32469119 32989062 33058986 32988893 32018912
    31598941 31569029 31579142 31799160=20



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