• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0572

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 20:42:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092042
    SPC MCD 092042=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0572
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...ArkLaTex region into the Mid South

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...158...

    Valid 092042Z - 092215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157, 158

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually intensify through
    the remainder of the afternoon. Large hail, damaging wind, and
    perhaps a tornado or two will be possible with the strongest storms.

    DISCUSSION...At 2030Z, thunderstorms are increasing in coverage
    along a cold front from AR into far northeast TX, with other
    stronger prefrontal cells noted across southern AR and northern MS.
    Thus far, only gradual intensification has been noted, despite a
    favorable environment characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and
    effective shear of 40-50 kt. The sluggish intensification thus far
    may be related to the generally limited large-scale ascent across
    the region, and the gradual weakening of low-level flow and
    convergence along the front. However, with relatively strong heating
    ongoing south of the front from northeast TX into southern AR,
    thunderstorms should continue to strengthen, with at least a few
    supercells likely to evolve by late afternoon.=20

    Large hail is expected to remain the primary threat in the short
    term, with significant (2 inch diameter or greater) hail still
    possible with any supercell that can develop. While low-level
    flow/shear is generally weakening with a time, a tornado or two
    cannot be ruled out, especially in the vicinity of a remnant outflow
    boundary extending from east-central AR into western TN, and where
    low-level shear is still relatively strong across northern MS. One
    or more clusters may also develop with time, which would pose a
    greater risk of damaging wind gusts along their path.

    ..Dean.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q4dE7438dX9ilF8q8A1Y1UsIEe2nJnuZM6A3zrwTsghbwgvY96tCpH1Gaidps38ZBeyfW51g$=
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    LAT...LON 33469463 33619442 34349352 35169206 35889067 36069004
    35988969 35618892 34978844 34618839 34098851 33828859
    33759040 33159179 32729275 32399323 32229379 32179434
    32369477 32989489 33139486 33469463=20

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