• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0571

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 20:23:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092023
    SPC MCD 092023=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0571
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0323 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Alabama into central Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092023Z - 092230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms may pose a brief severe threat as
    they continue to move east across northern Alabama and central
    Tennessee. However, the longevity of these storms is uncertain. A
    watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A convective line across northern TN and a cluster of semi-discrete cells over northern AL have shown somewhat surprising
    persistence over the past hour as they continue to move away from
    the region of better instability and into a drier air mass. GOES IR
    imagery continues to show periodic cloud top cooling with these
    storms, indicating that robust updrafts remain supported, likely the
    result of a combination of strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk
    shear values near 50 knots are noted over the region) and a slow
    eastward progression of a mid-level moist axis. KOHX and KHTX VWP
    observations show 40 knot 0-3 km shear over the region, and recent
    RAP analyses suggest lapse rates within this layer have steepened to
    near 7 C/km ahead of these clusters. This environment may support
    organizing cold pools and a damaging wind threat as the storms
    continue east over the next 1-2 hours. However, it is not clear how
    much longer this activity will maintain its current intensity as it
    continues to move into the drier air to the east. Given the
    uncertainty in the duration of this threat and the low probability
    of further intensification, a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qqgj1aVRrTNF6gmgmjQPsu4FjlcUQwn1SMefRydM3t78V-Htt2JLazp1DkF6dqbH0AOXpuC1$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36258678 36788622 37038528 36918426 36228407 35228455
    34538532 34318682 34298767 34838759 35798696 36258678=20

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