• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0570

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 18:42:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091842
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091841=20
    TXZ000-092015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0570
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0141 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/north TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 091841Z - 092015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase with time
    this afternoon, with a few supercells possible. Very large hail will
    be the primary threat, with locally severe wind gusts also possible.
    Watch issuance is likely by 20Z.

    DISCUSSION...At 1830Z, a cold front is moving southeastward across
    parts of central/north TX. A plume of elevated convection is noted
    just east of the front, with gradually deepening cumulus noted along
    the front itself. As the cap continues to erode this afternoon,
    scattered surface-based storms are expected to develop along the
    front, and may also possibly evolve from the plume of elevated
    convection to the east. Steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting moderate-to-strong buoyancy across the region, with MLCAPE of
    2000-3000 J/kg along/east of the front per recent objective
    mesoanalyses. While low-level flow is expected to gradually weaken
    across the area with time, midlevel flow will remain relatively
    strong, supporting effective shear of 40-50 kt.=20

    As surface-based storms mature this afternoon, a few supercells are
    likely to develop, with a threat of very large hail. Locally severe
    wind gusts will also be possible, especially with any upscale
    growing clusters that may evolve with time. Severe thunderstorm
    watch issuance is likely by 20Z.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rRfZR86YkhJ5_DvZIz0uqs96RBizgJ1G7aRK4819jnliuiS25DY7aJyhmBjVDH5-RKNwFA4_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30939933 31599815 32449667 32869598 32759576 32129561
    31609547 30629519 30069751 29979861 30339929 30559936
    30939933=20



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