• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0569

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 18:32:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091832
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091831=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-092100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0569
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0131 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...far southeast Colorado...and
    the far western Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091831Z - 092100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across northeast New Mexico and
    far southeast Colorado over the next few hours will pose a threat
    for damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. This threat will
    remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A deepening cluster of cumulus within a post
    cold-frontal upslope flow regime across north/northeastern NM is
    noted in recent GOES imagery. A few lightning strikes have been
    noted in the past hour with transient convective cells, hinting that
    more robust convection is possible in the next 1-2 hours. Across the
    high Plains to the east, temperatures are gradually warming into the
    low 60s amid partly cloudy skies. Cool temperatures aloft atop the
    warming boundary-layer are steepening low-level lapse rates to 7-9
    C/km, and this trend should continue with eastward extent through
    the late afternoon. Although instability will remain somewhat
    limited due to minimal low-level moisture (only around 500 J/kg
    MLCAPE is expected), 30-45 knot effective bulk shear magnitudes may
    support some storm organization and an isolated hail threat adjacent
    to the higher terrain. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, strong
    downburst winds appear to be the more likely hazard. In general, the
    localized forcing for ascent and limited instability will likely
    result in only a few strong to severe storms that may propagate as
    far east as the NM/TX border by early evening. The overall severe
    threat is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for a
    watch.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vE787tht7EhMiYm0UIKq7dgbfd4fh2ia2EBu4T3ABunjPOOSgi7P3J6jpX_0HlEXActRiK0o$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34710551 35170586 35680611 36390582 36940551 37290510
    37470460 37450410 37130357 36620325 35960290 34930287
    34320307 34300453 34710551=20



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