• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0567

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 08:46:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090846
    SPC MCD 090846=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0567
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...southern Missouri/northern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090846Z - 091045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong storms -- a few capable of hail and/or wind
    gusts near severe levels -- will be possible across the Ozarks
    region this morning. However, low-end/isolated risk that is
    expected to persist appears likely to remain too low to warrant new
    WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a mature, arcing band of
    thunderstorms moving southeastward across southwestern and central
    Missouri at this time. Meanwhile, isolated storms have developed
    farther south, across northwestern Arkansas/southwestern Missouri,
    in response to increasing low-level warm advection associated with a
    veering low-level jet.

    Amply steep lapse rates across the region are providing sufficient
    -- though slightly elevated -- CAPE, on the order of 500 to 1500
    J/kg. This -- combined with moderate/very weakly veering flow in
    the cloud-bearing layer -- is supporting a few stronger updrafts,
    and will likely continue to do so as convection spreads across the
    Ozarks. However, with severe potential expected to remain rather
    low-end and isolated, a WW is not currently anticipated. We will
    continue to monitor convective evolution across the area, for any
    signs of increased severe risk.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oLhZwEbc0bagdo6mUJ9YAKTPH3WJeGTWjpS5jIzqkA3SIUw5fw8Zzj40id8sglvlPiQ0TzFq$=
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    LAT...LON 35599418 36579347 37109373 37499419 38279308 38109231
    37389112 36869121 36179109 35889236 35599418=20

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