• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0566

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 9 06:39:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090639
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090639=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-090815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0566
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0139 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western and central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156...

    Valid 090639Z - 090815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across portions of western and
    central Missouri.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a bowing MCS moving
    eastward/southeastward across western and into central Missouri at
    this time, straddling a warm-frontal boundary that extends
    southeastward across the state. Instability diminishes with
    eastward extent into eastern Missouri, and thus more vigorous
    convection is preferentially developing on southwestern portions of
    the band, while gradual weakening occurs farther northeast. As a
    result, a continued/gradual turn more to the southeast is expected,
    with convection spreading across toward/across the Ozarks of
    southern Missouri with time, and this tendency reinforced by gradual
    veering of the low-level jet overnight.

    With that said, while convection will persist overnight, overall
    intensity is expected to very gradually decrease, and thus severe
    potential is likely to become more isolated/local, and tied to
    briefly stronger updrafts within the band. Therefore, while still well-contained within the watch, possible future need for a new WW
    downstream remains uncertain at this time, and will continue to be
    monitored.

    ..Goss.. 05/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rLrOjMGQGn7f_fx_mHdMndWJ0Dzu0JdPCCunKPsD0qCSOt9OMlfOZbL7y9Wzr44XbO1F8xkL$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 38669502 38709447 39129359 39519344 39369273 38699185
    37359190 37279287 37359387 37799497 38499507 38669502=20



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