• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0563

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 8 23:06:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082306
    SPC MCD 082306=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0563
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

    Areas affected...Kansas...Southern Nebraska...Far Northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...

    Valid 082306Z - 090100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153

    SUMMARY...Wind-damage, large hail and a tornado threat will continue
    to be possible across central and northern Kansas into southern
    Nebraska over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance will be
    needed soon across parts of northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and
    far northwest Missouri.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows two clusters of strong to
    severe thunderstorms. The first is located in west-central Kansas
    with the second in far south-central Nebraska. These storms are
    located along an axis of moderate instability with the RAP
    estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. A 994 mb surface
    low is located over southwest Kansas. The low is associated with a
    shortwave trough over far eastern Colorado, evident on water vapor
    imagery. As the shortwave moves eastward low-level flow will
    increase across the central Plains. This will support the
    development of a MCS. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Hastings shows 0-6
    km shear 55 kt with 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 350 m2/s2.
    This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will support
    supercells with large hail and possibly a tornado threat. As the
    storms merge into a bowing line segment, the wind-damage threat will
    increase later this evening.

    ..Broyles.. 05/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rgeSf3plLCUyrvGQPDQn0ES72MVoMM7XfrPZ5wlBET_Vk2psiaNVh9sjQi8fyrVwK0OeaQlz$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39559976 38549970 37929958 37899897 38369795 38769591
    39179507 39609489 40069492 40449540 40559623 40489863
    40109960 39559976=20

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