• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0562

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 8 20:59:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082059
    SPC MCD 082059=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0562
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0359 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082059Z - 082300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may produce sporadic damaging
    winds across eastern Colorado through the early evening hours. This
    threat should remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES IR trends from the Denver, CO
    region show an uptick in convection over the past 30 minutes as a
    passing cold front induces an upslope flow regime over the CO front
    range. Despite the cold frontal passage, the air mass over the CO
    Plains remains supportive for convection thanks to cold temperatures
    aloft and nearly 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates that are allowing for
    around 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Nearly 40 F dewpoint depressions across the
    region are indicative of a dry, well-mixed boundary layer, and this
    idea is supported by recent RAP forecast soundings. This low-level thermodynamic profile is supportive of strong downdrafts, and 40-50
    knots of effective bulk shear may support some cold pool
    organization and a damaging wind threat with any larger clusters.
    Convective coverage is somewhat uncertain since the primary forcing
    mechanism will likely remain confined along the front range in the
    upslope flow regime. Furthermore, the instability is not expected to substantially improve given gradual cold advection and patchy cloud
    cover, and a few discrete cells have recently shown only transient intensification. The limited nature of this threat precludes the
    need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pZ4dxJIgWT3ijeaer1h_gHh0WzR11o8NLrI9alWd-2P_IGMb0FL2ahXys34_XsWa8i_rWIig$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38020396 38480451 38850488 39500502 40280494 40610425
    40470349 39660295 39190250 38500199 37780202 37640218
    37620264 38020396=20

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