• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0561

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 8 20:25:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082025
    SPC MCD 082024=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0561
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central KS and extreme south-central NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 082024Z - 082230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in
    the 5-7 pm CDT/22z-00z time frame, with a risk for primarily large
    hail and damaging winds. Observational trends are being monitored
    and a watch is likely to 22z.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a high-based
    cumulus field becoming better established over portions of southwest
    and central KS near a triple point north of Dodge City. A warm front
    extends north/east from the triple point across northern KS, while a
    cold front continues moving southward over western KS. Strong
    heating/mixing of mid-upper 50s surface dew points has resulted in moderate-strong MLCAPE beneath an EML within the warm sector, with
    further erosion of MLCINH contributing to thunderstorm development
    in the 22z-00z time frame as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches
    from the west.=20

    Isolated supercell storms developing initially near the triple point
    will move east-northeast in the vicinity of the warm front with a
    risk for primarily large hail. Damaging winds will become more
    likely with time, and some risk for a tornado may also exist,
    especially with discrete storms near the warm front. Thunderstorm
    coverage should increase through early evening along the cold front
    as it advances eastward over north-central KS.=20

    Trends continue to be monitored and a watch is likely by 22z.

    ..Bunting/Thompson.. 05/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v6R0t_w9C7p6WdlNX66YNqg1SM37rpi6I9zWak5q292SPCY80_qybspwwlc3UXU1Zfl9sw3d$=
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    LAT...LON 37889922 37939965 38319993 39099957 39599931 39979920
    40209872 40189814 39969796 39549797 39279795 38979795
    38719796 38239814 37889922=20

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