Mesoscale Discussion 0560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021
Areas affected...The Big Bend region of southern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 082024Z - 082130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...One or two thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon
across southern Texas. However, the severe threat is expected to
remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows a growing field of agitated
cumulus in the Fort Stockton, TX area along a semi-diffuse dryline.
This region is on the periphery of richer boundary-layer moisture
with dewpoints only reaching the low 50s on the moist side of the
confluence axis. However, RAP mesoanalysis and forecast soundings
suggest a narrow corridor may exist where sufficient moisture and boundary-layer heating (surface temperatures in the low 90s are
noted in the region) will support 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE with minimal
inhibition. Recent HRRR guidance suggests a storm or two may develop
in this corridor and/or within the higher terrain of northern Mexico
by late afternoon. Given 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, storm organization is likely and may support an isolated hail/wind threat.
Any storm that can initiate will encounter a higher MUCIN
environment as it moves eastward into south-central TX. This casts
some uncertainty into the duration of any robust convection. Given
the isolated, and possibly short duration, nature of this threat, a
watch is not expected.
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