• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0560

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 8 20:24:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082024
    SPC MCD 082024=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0560
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

    Areas affected...The Big Bend region of southern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082024Z - 082130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...One or two thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon
    across southern Texas. However, the severe threat is expected to
    remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows a growing field of agitated
    cumulus in the Fort Stockton, TX area along a semi-diffuse dryline.
    This region is on the periphery of richer boundary-layer moisture
    with dewpoints only reaching the low 50s on the moist side of the
    confluence axis. However, RAP mesoanalysis and forecast soundings
    suggest a narrow corridor may exist where sufficient moisture and boundary-layer heating (surface temperatures in the low 90s are
    noted in the region) will support 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE with minimal
    inhibition. Recent HRRR guidance suggests a storm or two may develop
    in this corridor and/or within the higher terrain of northern Mexico
    by late afternoon. Given 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, storm organization is likely and may support an isolated hail/wind threat.
    Any storm that can initiate will encounter a higher MUCIN
    environment as it moves eastward into south-central TX. This casts
    some uncertainty into the duration of any robust convection. Given
    the isolated, and possibly short duration, nature of this threat, a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qlhB-CT8uuTbQGx7tDW6cPNEQmogJiS-CaJOp-4VUL7NuW4qVAFjjpeygfrNHqCX_4c_5PjR$=
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    LAT...LON 28960345 29810335 30800302 31360253 31910198 31920125
    31530059 30780046 29770100 29370116 29580149 29670181
    29700218 29550255 29240272 29050286 28830301 28850327

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