• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0559

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 7 20:47:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072047
    SPC MCD 072047=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0559
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Fri May 07 2021

    Areas affected...The Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 072047Z - 072245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms may pose an increasing
    wind threat for the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles in the
    coming hours. A watch is possible if a more robust clustering trend
    is noted.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends from northeastern NM and the
    northern OK/TX Panhandles show a variety of isolated cells and
    loosely organized clusters - some of which have exhibited transient
    signs of cold pool propagation despite the weak flow regime. Some of
    these storms have produced near-severe winds (a recent 52 mph gust
    is noted at the Eva, OK Mesonet site), but larger clustering and
    cold pool consolidation has not yet become apparent. Surface
    observations from the TX Panhandle reveal 40-50 degree dewpoint
    depressions indicative of a dry, well-mixed boundary layer. This
    idea is supported by recent RAP forecast soundings as well as recent mesoanalyses, which indicate that nearly 9 C/km lapse rates are in
    place across the Panhandles. This, along with sufficient mid-level
    moisture and cold temperatures aloft, is contributing to around 1000
    J/kg SBCAPE with minimal inhibition. This environment will continue
    to support strong to severe wind gusts, though it remains to be seen
    if the isolated clusters can consolidate further and pose a more
    widespread severe wind threat. Trends will be monitored and a watch
    is possible if confidence in this potential increases.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!txI5jXsKA5tH7xBzOAK4hArlWqT6qlVn6ZrnYfVpV5LNxMpycVYBzVKDUejQCxKYPA357zr6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35770299 36310306 36970251 37070140 36810020 36320020
    35890055 35620094 35590184 35650258 35770299=20

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