• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0558

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 7 20:26:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072025=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-072230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0558
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0325 PM CDT Fri May 07 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Montana...far northeast Idaho...and far
    northwest Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072025Z - 072230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may produce isolated strong to
    severe winds as well occasional severe hail. This threat should
    remain relatively isolated, and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery and lightning observations show a
    few convective cells developing within the Sawtooth mountain range
    of northeast ID/southwest MT. Recent RAP forecast soundings suggest
    minimal instability (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) is in place across the
    region, but is sufficient for initiating storms given orographic
    lift and ascent along a cold front. Gradual boundary-layer warming
    (and slight moistening) is noted across southern MT, and should help
    improve MLCAPE through the late afternoon hours. Stronger flow aloft
    will support effective bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots
    as parcel ascents deepen with time. Latest RAP mesoanalyses show a
    narrow plume of 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km ahead of the
    developing storms, which should support the potential for sporadic
    strong to severe winds with any mature convection. A veering wind
    profile in the lowest 5-6 km may support one or two organized
    mesocyclones and the potential for isolated severe hail, though the
    limited instability introduces considerable uncertainty for this
    scenario. Overall, the coverage of this threat is expected to be
    fairly isolated, precluding the need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uYOVKX2UOd3Sx8Jjf1lCQJ-76PATC7sw6WIdIufXaZQJBYeKxyjq5FCSoYR8FKEBvnG282xw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

    LAT...LON 44561340 45381310 46251190 46791051 46760874 46100825
    45370868 44841000 44441139 44121286 44561340=20



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