• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0557

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 7 19:48:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071947
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071947=20
    FLZ000-072145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0557
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Fri May 07 2021

    Areas affected...South FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071947Z - 072145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across south
    Florida this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front just north
    of APF eastward to about 20 miles south of PBI. This front is
    gradually moving southward. Additionally, visible satellite imagery
    reveals the eastward-moving sea-breeze boundary well, which extends
    in an arc from just north of MKY to about 20-25 miles
    south-southwest of MIA. The small area south of the cold front and
    east of the sea breeze has shown increasingly deep cu over the past
    half hour as well as several attempts at deep convection.=20

    Expectation is for these attempts at convective initiation to
    continue, with at least some chance a few thunderstorms develop this
    afternoon before the progression of these boundaries pushes
    development offshore. If deep convection is realized, the relatively
    high LCL and steep low-level lapses rate sampled on the 18Z MFL
    sounding reveal an environment favorable for wet microbursts capable
    of damaging wind gusts.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 05/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vu7rguIBvdcUduAcLoycXngN9cZdZF2SAZ6pgaGAhVvrk1GSQxsXBEywDBhN-WoQqcnp58mE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

    LAT...LON 26158120 26348046 26408006 25807985 25258031 25688071
    26158120=20



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