• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0556

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 7 18:00:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071800
    SPC MCD 071800=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0556
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CDT Fri May 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northern New Mexico...southeast Colorado...and the
    far western Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071800Z - 072000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...One or two strong to severe storms may develop within a
    region of developing thunderstorms over the next few hours. This
    threat should remain isolated and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway from northwest NM
    into far southeast CO amid strong diurnal heating and orographic
    ascent over the terrain of the southern Rockies. GOES IR imagery has
    shown steady cloud top cooling with an uptick in lightning noted as
    a few storms begin to intensify. Despite limited boundary-layer
    moisture, cool temperatures aloft and warm surface temperatures are
    supporting MUCAPE values between 500-1500 J/kg. RAP mesoanalysis
    also shows increasing surface-based instability as heating continues
    to erode lingering inhibition. Deep-layer shear over the region is
    only marginally supportive of organized convection with 0-6 km bulk
    shear values between 25-30 knots. However, the increasing
    instability atop a well-mixed boundary layer (featuring 0-3 km lapse
    rates near 9 C/km) will support the potential for a few strong
    downdrafts that could produce damaging wind gusts. Isolated
    instances of marginally severe hail are also possible with any
    stronger updraft pulses, but the overall severe threat is expected
    to be fairly isolated across north/northwest NM and far southeast
    CO. A more organized severe threat is expected to evolve in the mid
    to late afternoon hours across eastern NM and into the OK/TX
    Panhandles as the developing convection grows upscale.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rpmITrEhOuO67pLvp_y2t8nPu2C0OXzPlajPq4yrQhbEg5RDShPJga6nXBkWkvDkVFv0vjTQ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35840321 35130402 34360451 33410481 32940520 33040586
    33570662 33630746 33620789 33870833 34770838 35520819
    36340784 36630664 37060559 37330520 37590470 37670356
    37600298 36970254 36240268 35840321=20

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