• DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 7 00:55:24 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 070054
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 070054

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0754 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

    Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EASTERN
    FLORIDA PENINSULA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
    will be possible this evening in parts of the Gulf Coast States,
    Tennessee Valley and eastern Florida Peninsula.

    ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley...
    The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving
    southeastward through the Tennessee Valley. A plume of mid-level
    moisture is located near the shortwave trough in the Ohio and
    Tennessee Valleys. A band of strong thunderstorms is currently
    ongoing at the southern end of this plume from northeast Mississippi northeastward into middle Tennessee. This band of storms will
    continue to move southeastward this evening across eastern
    Tennessee, north-central Alabama and far northwest Georgia. Although instability is weak ahead of the convective line, mid-level lapse
    rates are steep and deep-layer shear is strong. This should be
    enough to keep an isolated wind-damage threat going for another hour
    or two. Hail could also occur but any severe threat should diminish
    quickly later this evening as diurnal heating diminishes.

    ...Eastern Florida Peninsula...
    The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving
    eastward near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. At the
    surface, a low pressure trough is located across the eastern Florida
    Peninsula, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The airmass
    near the surface trough is characterized by moderate deep-layer
    shear and MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition,
    low-level lapse rates are steep and winds are veered to the west.
    This could be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the better-organized multicells. A hail threat could also accompany the
    stronger updrafts. Any severe threat is expected to diminish over
    the next few hours as the convection moves offshore.

    ..Broyles.. 05/07/2021






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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 14 06:23:51 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 140623
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 140621

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0121 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    NEW ENGLAND...MID ATLANTIC...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL...SOUTHWEST SD INTO
    THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ARIZONA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms may produce strong wind gusts
    across parts of the Mid Atlantic and New England this afternoon and
    evening. Strong wind gusts and hail may also accompany storms across
    portions of the central High Plains, and also across Arizona. Gusty thunderstorm winds and a tornado or two may be possible across
    portions of central and southern Florida, as Tropical Cyclone Fred
    moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

    ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
    An upper trough and associated cold front are forecast to move
    across parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic this afternoon and
    evening. Across New England, moderate destabilization is expected in
    advance of the front, and thunderstorm development will be possible
    by early afternoon. While stronger midlevel flow will tend to lag
    behind the front, deep-layer 20-30 kt southwesterlies may support a
    few organized cells/clusters capable of producing isolated wind
    damage.

    Further south into the Mid Atlantic and portions of the Carolinas,
    relatively strong heating and rich low-level moisture will result in
    large MLCAPE (potentially greater than 2500 J/kg) by mid afternoon.
    Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within a
    minimally capped airmass. While deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker
    compared to areas further north, wet microbursts and loosely
    organized clusters will support a threat of isolated to scattered
    wind damage as storms move eastward toward the coast by evening.

    ...Western SD into the central High Plains...
    Moderate instability is forecast to develop this afternoon from
    western SD into portions of the southern High Plains, as modest
    low-level moisture returns to the region underneath rather steep
    midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorm development will be
    possible by mid/late afternoon across parts of western SD/NE,
    potentially aided by a weak midlevel shortwave trough embedded
    within the northwesterly midlevel flow regime. Effective shear of
    30-35 kt will support strong multicells and perhaps a couple of
    supercells, with an attendant threat of large hail and damaging
    wind. If confidence increases in greater storm coverage across this
    region, a Slight Risk upgrade may eventually be needed.

    ...Arizona...
    The mid/upper-level pattern across AZ is expected to be similar to
    the previous day, with modest midlevel east-northeasterly flow
    forecast across central/southern AZ, to the south of an upper ridge
    centered over the Great Basin. This pattern will again favor the
    potential for isolated strong/severe thunderstorms across the higher
    terrain and potentially into the valleys, though there is some
    uncertainty regarding the amount of thermodynamic recovery this afternoon/evening in the wake of widespread convection Friday night.
    Should sufficient recovery occur, thunderstorms capable of localized
    severe wind and hail will be possible across higher elevations
    during the afternoon/evening, with one or more clusters potentially
    spreading into lower elevations tonight with an attendant
    wind-damage threat.

    ...Florida...
    Tropical Cyclone Fred is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico by this evening, though its track and intensity remain
    uncertain given its current disorganized state. While low-level
    easterly flow will likely increase across the central/southern FL
    Peninsula through the period, the most favorable low-level shear/SRH
    for a tornado threat may tend to stay offshore. The Marginal Risk
    has been maintained for now, though the risk area may eventually
    need to be adjusted or trimmed in subsequent outlooks.

    ..Dean.. 08/14/2021

    $$


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 18 17:10:18 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 181710
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 181708

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

    Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
    THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS A PORTION OF UTAH...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Tornado potential exists today in parts of the inland Mid-Atlantic
    and central Appalachians region, over the eastern sector of post
    Tropical Cylcone Fred. Storms may produce isolated damaging wind and
    large hail across a portion of the Great Basin including much of
    Utah.

    ...Middle Atlantic Region...

    The center of post Tropical Cyclone Fred is located near the
    northeast WV / southwest PA border and should move north northeast
    to near the central PA / NY border by early evening. A warm front
    extends east from this low through southern PA into central NJ, and
    this boundary will continue to advance northward during the day.
    Visible imagery show numerous breaks between convergence bands,
    especially across northern VA into MD and southern PA. This zone of
    partial clearing and diabatic warming of the moist surface layer
    should spread northward with time contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg
    MLCAPE, especially near and south of the warm front. The greatest
    potential for a few tornadoes will probably be across central PA.
    Here, convection developing within the convergence bands will move
    north and interact with the warm front where low-level hodograph
    size should be maximized (250-350 m2/s2 SRH) during afternoon peak
    heating.

    ...Great Basin region...

    A convective outflow boundary is situated across northern UT from
    near Salt lake City southwestward to the NV border. South of this
    boundary, anomalously rich low-level moisture is in place with
    dewpoints in the upper 50s F. Areas of partial clearing with strong
    diabatic heating should support up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE this
    afternoon, and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage as the
    boundary layer continues to destabilize. Increasing mid-upper flow
    associated with an amplifying upper trough will support 30-45 kt
    effective bulk shear supportive of some supercell structures.
    Isolated damaging wind and large hail are the primary threats into
    the early evening.

    ..Dial/Moore.. 08/18/2021

    $$


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 27 01:15:16 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 270115
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 270113

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0813 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

    Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA...SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
    WISCONSIN...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
    tonight in a broad area from central Montana into South Dakota and
    Nebraska, eastward through Iowa and into southwest Wisconsin.

    ...SD/NE east to IA and southwest Great Lakes...
    Considerable convective activity during the day has led to the
    placement of several boundaries draped across the NE/IA vicinity
    this evening. The airmass south of the boundaries is extremely
    unstable across eastern NE (5600 J/kg MLCAPE on the Omaha raob)
    where a reservoir of rich low-level moisture resides beneath steep
    mid-level lapse rates. The primary uncertainty this forecast
    pertains to the evolution of storms during the evening and into the
    overnight as a LLJ strengthens across the central Great Plains.
    Mid-level heights are expected to gradually fall across this region
    overnight but the primary mid-level disturbance will remain mostly
    displaced to the northwest of the region. Several clusters of
    strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop during the
    evening and become more widespread through the late evening and into
    the overnight. Widely scattered severe gusts are possible and a
    risk for large hail will potentially accompany the more intense
    updrafts. Please reference MCD #1614 for the latest short-term
    details across SD and NE.

    ...MT...
    A potent mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water-vapor imagery
    this evening, will move east tonight reaching the western Dakotas by
    daybreak. An cluster of storms over central MT this evening will
    continue through the evening as this activity spreads east. The 00z
    Glasgow raob showed a modestly moist and weakly unstable airmass
    across eastern MT with 600 J/kg MLCAPE. A wind profile supporting
    organized storms will aid in some of the stronger storms to be
    capable of a wind/hail risk through the late evening hours before
    this activity weakens late.

    ..Smith.. 08/27/2021

    $$


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Dec 6 01:44:32 2021
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    ACUS01 KWNS 060144
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 060142

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0742 PM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

    Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
    REGION INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex region to the
    Mid-South and lower Ohio River Valley this evening into the
    overnight.

    ...01Z Update...
    Moisture continues to advect northward ahead of a cold front
    positions from north-central Oklahoma in central Missouri and
    central Illinois. Over the next 3-4 hours, storm coverage should
    increase along the front from northwest Arkansas northeastward into
    western Kentucky. With deep-layer winds parallel to the front, a
    linear storm mode will quickly be favored. However, some high
    resolution guidance does suggest some possibility of more discrete,
    pre-frontal development in parts of northern Arkansas. Should this
    occur, a conditionally higher threat for a tornado would exist. The
    observed 00Z Little Rock sounding showed an enlarged low-level
    hodograph with over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH. The most probable
    outcome appears to be squall line moving southeastward through
    Arkansas and western Tennessee/Kentucky capable of damaging wind
    gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes. Though mid-level forcing will
    be stronger farther northeast into southern Ohio, much more limited
    buoyancy should keep damaging gust potential more isolated.

    Within the Sabine River Valley, some potential for isolated storms
    to develop within a warm advection zone exists towards Monday
    morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear
    would support a marginal threat for large hail and damaging winds.

    ..Wendt.. 12/06/2021

    $$


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 1 07:52:28 2022
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    ACUS01 KWNS 010752
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 010750

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

    Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
    OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widespread thunderstorms are expected from the ArkLaTex to the
    Western Appalachians today. All severe-weather hazards are possible
    in parts of these areas, including large hail, damaging winds, and
    tornadoes. Strong tornadoes are possible.

    ...Northeast TX to Western Appalachians...

    Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper
    vort/short-wave trough along the southeast AZ/NM border, shifting
    northeast in line with latest model guidance. Dominant upper ridging
    over the southeastern US will move little during the day1 period
    which will force this short wave across MO into the OH Valley where
    it will deamplify within the broader, strong southwesterly flow
    regime. Resultant mid-level height falls are not forecast to be that
    strong across the warm sector which will encourage the most
    concentrated convection to congregate along/near the frontal zone. Additionally, weak surface low is forecast to track northeast along
    the wind shift in response to the ejecting short wave from AR at
    daybreak to WV by 02/00z.

    Low-level warm advection is currently (0530z) aiding a corridor of
    maturing thunderstorms from north-central TX-southeast OK-northern
    AR. This activity will likely prove to be the western-northern edge
    of strong/severe convection at the start of the period. 00z
    soundings across the warm sector were considerably capped this
    evening and forecast soundings across portions of the warm sector
    later today continue to suggest a relative warm layer near 700mb
    which is expected to limit lapse rates through this layer. It's not
    entirely clear how much discrete warm sector development will occur
    at lower latitudes but wind profiles/low-level shear certainly favor
    supercells and tornadoes, and potentially a strong tornado or two.
    Higher confidence in thunderstorm coverage exists with frontal
    convection. Storm mode will be considerably messy with line segments
    and clusters along/near the wind shift. Even a few embedded
    supercells can be expected given the observed strong wind fields.
    01/00z NAM suggests 65kt LLJ will translate ahead of the short wave
    from northern MS/southern AR early, across MS/western TN by 18z,
    then into eastern KY by early evening. This reflects the stronger
    forcing and likely the primary corridor for more concentrated
    strong/severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and tornadoes are the
    primary risks, though some hail may be noted across western/central
    portions of the outlook.

    ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/01/2022

    $$


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 11 19:43:01 2022
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    ACUS01 KWNS 111942
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 111941

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0141 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022

    Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Occasional isolated thunderstorms remain possible along southeastern
    Florida coastal areas late today through tonight.

    ...20Z Outlook Update...

    ...Southeastern Florida...
    The surface frontal zone is stalling south of the peninsula, with a northeasterly post-frontal onshore flow component and associated
    friction induced convergence remaining focused along Atlantic
    coastal areas. Beneath relatively cold mid-level temperatures,
    objective analysis indicates that boundary-layer moisture remains
    sufficient to support at least weak conditional instability as far
    north as the Palm Beach vicinity, and this might not change much
    through 12Z Wednesday. As a weak/low amplitude mid-level short wave
    trough gradually digs across the central and southern peninsula late
    this afternoon through tonight, the risk for showers and occasional
    isolated thunderstorms seem likely to persist near coastal areas.

    ..Kerr.. 01/11/2022

    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022/

    No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Showers and a
    few thunderstorms will continue to affect the coastal waters of
    southeast FL this afternoon, with a chance of a storm or two moving
    inland. No severe storms are anticipated.

    $$


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