• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0555

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 6 22:11:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062211
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062211=20
    TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-062345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0555
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

    Areas affected...Northern MS/AL...Middle TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 062211Z - 062345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic wind damage will be possible this evening with a
    weakening line of thunderstorms.

    DISCUSSION...At 22Z, an arcing line of low-topped thunderstorms is
    approaching portions of northern MS/AL into middle TN, in
    conjunction with a compact midlevel vorticity maximum moving
    southeastward into portions of the OH/TN valleys. Wind gusts of
    40-45 kt have been noted with the line across western TN within the
    last hour. While buoyancy is weak across the region (MUCAPE
    generally 500 J/kg or less), steep low-level lapse rates within a
    dry, well-mixed boundary layer continue to support the potential for
    stronger wind gusts capable of producing at least isolated wind
    damage.=20

    The already weak instability will diminish even further this
    evening, with the onset of nocturnal cooling/boundary-layer
    stabilization. However, given the relative strength of the midlevel
    system and surface cold pool, some threat for sporadic damaging wind
    gusts will continue for awhile this evening as convection gradually
    weakens. At this time, the remaining threat appears too limited in
    duration and magnitude for additional watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pOIU2kNh1TP1g72tI-dbFEYtAr-hqE20RR3-m-0TmqT6jn3uGjTj9-atNNshWsEe8eegj5B5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 34698986 34918869 35608767 36608686 36588594 35468575
    34758597 34208648 33798755 33708858 33738945 33998997
    34279051 34679039 34698986=20



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