• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0554

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 6 19:46:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061946
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061945=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0554
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0245 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southeast MO/MO Bootheel...Far Western
    KY...Western TN...Northwest AR

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152...

    Valid 061945Z - 062115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for isolated hail and damaging wind gusts continues
    across much of the region.

    DISCUSSION...Updrafts within the much of the convective cluster
    moving across the Mid MS Valley have recently shown a deepening
    trend. Some modest increase in forward progression is also occurring
    with this portion of the line, with storm motion now around 35-40
    kt. Given this speed, the more southward moving portion (along the
    far southern edge of this cluster) will likely move outside the
    current watch around 20Z. In contrast to the rest of the cluster,
    this portion has been weakening over the past half hour, suggesting
    the severe threat may not extend past the edge of the watch. A more
    easterly motion is anticipated with the rest of the cluster, bring
    it to the edge of the watch in TN closer to 21Z.=20

    A narrow corridor of better low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in
    the mid 40s) only extends through western TN, with dewpoints still
    in the upper 30s across much of middle TN. This may limit the
    intensity as the cluster moves east into more of middle TN late this
    afternoon and evening. However, the environment where the cluster
    currently resides is supportive of strong to severe storms capable
    of isolated hail and damaging wind gusts.

    ..Mosier.. 05/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tnrDz4cZKghL5sI2yRbc890m4hhzDjZtmAOuvCVUlSeu90dTVp32AZhGBHZzn776O9D0DeGA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 37188959 37038897 36158841 35518883 35049033 35369117
    36149085 37188959=20



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