• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0553

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 6 19:06:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061906
    SPC MCD 061906=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0553
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

    Areas affected...South FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061906Z - 062100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this
    afternoon and early evening. Isolated stronger storms will pose a
    risk for strong, possibly damaging wind gusts. A watch is not
    anticipated due to the localized nature of the risk.

    DISCUSSION...Daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass (lower
    70s surface dew points) has resulted in MLCAPE averaging 1000 to
    locally 2000 J/kg across south FL as of 19z along with negligible
    convective inhibition. The 18z MFL sounding sampled generally weak
    westerly flow in the mid-upper levels, contributing to around 20 kts
    of effective shear. Thunderstorm development is expected the
    remainder of this afternoon in the vicinity of the nearly stationary
    sea breeze boundary which extends from eastern Palm Beach County
    southwestward into central Miami-Dade County, and also along the
    west coast sea breeze as it continues moving east across South FL.

    Steep low-level lapse rates will result in a risk for localized
    strong/possibly damaging gusts as the primary severe risk as storms
    move east/southeast through early evening. Due to the expected
    isolated nature of the risk, a watch is not anticipated.

    ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pNlwVrTkO7CUzEVKiT4NLKWpwYwTerZ64tqy7XKS-asYGThCdpOXxAUQz4HnJvLQd9HYmkY1$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 25447987 25278024 25608067 26528100 27068119 27278086
    27148029 27138004 26997985 26207982 25447987=20

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