• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0552

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 6 18:10:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061810
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061810=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-062015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0552
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0110 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

    Areas affected...Central/East-Central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061810Z - 062015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Unique environment capable of brief landspouts will exist
    across the region for the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating ahead of the front has
    resulted in steep low-level lapse rates in a narrow corridor ahead
    of the cold front across central/east-central IL. Steep mid-level
    lapse rates exist atop these steep low-level lapse rates, resulting
    in a thermodynamic profile characterized by at least 7.0 deg C/km
    lapse rates from the surface to above 500-mb. Additionally,
    increased surface vorticity exists in the immediate vicinity of the
    frontal boundary.=20

    Combination of the steep low-level lapse rates and surface vorticity
    results in the unique environment where developing/deepening
    updrafts could produce in brief landspouts. Limited and brief nature
    of this threat precludes watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uVWD_CTeeopdRK6gthaJppZMNDl7ZmVBTso809fWWcoHTF91-C8Db8eM-LYoMFIv_D-aaiI2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 40308904 40788830 40758745 39608765 39018842 39218960
    40308904=20



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