• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0551

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 6 17:03:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061703
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061702=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0551
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1202 PM CDT Thu May 06 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast MO/MO Bootheel...Southern IL...Far
    Western KY...Western TN...Northeast AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061702Z - 061900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across the
    region this afternoon as strong to severe thunderstorms develop
    along and ahead of the cold front.

    DISCUSSION...Updrafts continue to deepen within the convective
    cluster along and ahead of the cold front moving southeastward into
    southeast MO and adjacent southern IL. Expectation is for these
    storms to continued to strengthen as they move into the slightly
    warmer and more moist air mass downstream.=20

    Cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep lapse rates will
    support moderate buoyancy, despite the relatively modest low-level
    moisture. Strong unidirectional deep-layer flow will result in fast
    storm motion as well as the potential for a strong, convectively
    augmented wind gusts. Additionally, given the cold mid-level
    temperatures and moderate mid-level flow, hail is also possible with
    the stronger updrafts. Anticipated strong to severe nature of the
    storms merits possible watch issuance and convective trends are
    being monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qUmVB8BbSepPARgrAq_IZ1g9q_-LB0kuV5ebkePgRgIP67R-mx76vUP4Qc5RxGRfcEsDIWBr$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

    LAT...LON 37339077 38128968 37758824 36678775 35638830 35248919
    35329036 36129123 37339077=20



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