• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0550

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 6 16:06:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061606
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061605=20
    FLZ000-061800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0550
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1105 AM CDT Thu May 06 2021

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061605Z - 061800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Coverage of thunderstorms will likely increase over the
    next few hours. Some of these storms could be severe. An upgrade to
    Slight Risk is forthcoming for the Space Coast.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increasingly deep
    cumulus over the past half hour or so across much of the central FL
    Peninsula, south of a cold front extending from CGC eastward to OMN. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of this front
    as the air mass continues to destabilize, resulting in moderate
    instability this afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow
    extends across northern portions of central FL (roughly the northern
    half of MLB's CWA) appears strong enough to support storm
    organization and the potential for a somewhat organized convective
    cluster.=20

    Given the expectation for increasing storm coverage and potential
    for updraft organization, an upgrade to 15% wind/hail probabilities
    is forthcoming in the 1630Z Convective Outlook for the Space Coast.
    Convective trends will also be monitored closely for possible watch
    issuance. Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although
    hail and potentially even a brief tornado are also possible.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uNWFpoHFGYHy8acN0giUp_j2mKQXn0VKl8HTY5-OjZZgq1_2TGo4PhNRD_tmZgcaCYbFMLkp$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 27708024 27378089 27488126 28158157 28688187 29368183
    29478097 27708024=20



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