• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0548

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 6 14:52:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061452
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061452=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-061615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0548
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0952 AM CDT Thu May 06 2021

    Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast MO....West-Central/Southwest
    IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061452Z - 061615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gust and/or an instance of large
    hail is possible over the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over north-central
    IL, with cold front extending southwestward from this low through
    central and southwest MO. A subtle pre-frontal trough precedes the
    cold front. Attempts at deeper convection have been noted over the
    past half hour or so along both of these boundaries, although no
    well developed updrafts have materialized thus far. This trend of
    somewhat sporadic and short-lived deep updrafts will likely persist
    for the next hour or two, fostered by modest buoyant attendant to
    the cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates. Limited
    duration of the strong updrafts should temper the severe potential
    enough to preclude watch issuance until farther southeast later this
    afternoon. Even so, an isolated damaging wind gusts and/or instance
    of large hail is possible for a few hours.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tAvAZe88eP4hudyOuQ7cBOxsXSsDcr7__N4OQ6fZ_Ou1vKHv7wpUE8uTSETO4w0xud077W7i$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 38449228 39549070 39278935 37998919 37099041 37529239
    38449228=20



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