• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0547

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 5 23:40:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052340
    SPC MCD 052339=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0547
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0639 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest kansas northwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052339Z - 060115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
    damaging wind gusts early this evening. Limited confidence exists on
    how storms will evolve over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2320 UTC, RADAR observations showed a loosely
    organized line of high-based thunderstorms near the KS/OK Border.
    These storms have recently produced severe hail and wind gusts in
    the vicinity of DDC. Downstream of the ongoing storms, SPC
    mesoanalysis and surface observations show a relatively warm airmass
    with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F. Moisture remains
    limited with surface dewpoints in the 40s supporting only modest destabilization. However, vicinity soundings show deep inverted V
    profiles with around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE above the steep surface
    lapse rates. Given the parameter space, it appears likely these
    storms will continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts
    over the next couple of hours as storm outflow mergers support
    greater cold pool development downstream into portions of Northwest
    Oklahoma. Hi-res guidance suggests that storms will gradually begin
    to weaken near sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. The limited
    spatial and temporal threat suggests that a watch may not be needed,
    but severe trends will be monitored.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ptlloKYNjnxQrdCaN8bVWV1Hjlw0biMlJci3v072mgqJVtV9NIrE7fIt9wYczqd8dqQAdJma$=
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    LAT...LON 35689893 36109974 36489995 37020032 37429985 37639933
    37639896 37429821 37249781 36969750 36569738 36339753
    36109763 35849788 35729826 35689893=20

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