• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0546

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 5 20:48:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052048
    SPC MCD 052047=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0546
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052047Z - 052215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or a damaging gusts
    cannot be ruled out with one of the stronger storms. A WW issuance
    is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...High-based, low-topped convection continues to
    intensify ahead of a slowly east-southeastward advancing cold front
    across portions of the Central Plains per latest MRMS mosaic radar
    imagery. Immediately along the front, latest Mesoanalysis depicts up
    to 500 J/kg MLCAPE driven primarily by ample insolation, mid 40s
    surface dewpoints, and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates advected
    eastward by modest mid-level flow. One of the stronger storms may
    briefly support a couple instances of severe hail, though hail is
    expected to remain small overall given the very skinny CAPE vertical
    profiles. A damaging gust also cannot be ruled out given the
    relatively dry boundary layer, as also inferred by near 20F temperature/dewpoint depressions via the latest METAR observations.

    The severe threat area should be confined to a limited area east of
    the front given overall scant low-level moisture and slow eastward
    advection of the steeper lapse rates. The locally confined, brief
    nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rrxmQoeDd-SMDDTHJ3vEaJ8_zztqAtUvrXwrb4RizTsHVnhZSb0LdaWmT8uAkSq6RyU5oGr6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39089897 39479916 40029890 40799836 41789785 42029771
    42149718 41979669 41599641 41489639 41049625 39989655
    39319756 39139847 39089897=20

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