• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0545

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 5 19:29:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 051929
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051929=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-052200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0545
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas...extreme southeast Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051929Z - 052200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms are expected through the
    afternoon. Damaging gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail
    may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not currently
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a surface cold
    front across western Kansas into eastern Colorado, just south of a
    CBK-GLD-ITR line, and is gradually propagating southeast. Convection
    will continue to gradually deepen and intensify with continued
    strong diurnal heating and associated boundary-layer mixing.
    Deep-layer steep lapse rates are in place, with the latest RAP PFCs
    suggesting boundary-layer mixing past 700 mb. 8-9 C/km lapse rates
    are present within the lowest 2 km, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km lapse
    rates in the mid levels. Relatively stronger flow aloft (i.e. 50+
    kts) is contained roughly above 500 mb. Still, the presence of a
    deep, dry sub-cloud layer will promote enough evaporative cooling
    for efficient downward momentum transport of the mid-level flow with
    any of the stronger storm cores that can develop. A brief instance
    or two marginally severe hail is also possible given the steep
    mid-level lapse rates.

    Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain brief and
    sparse overall. A WW issuance is not currently expected.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oaDljPUHg0357W9N6ecUxYJ_AqIvKhm0Yxxwzt5MPvdt3lg1nBJoUVhrIsygDiwbcWyL0l7i$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 36470180 36890216 37340219 37830203 38290181 38510147
    38720086 38650036 38450003 37959977 37389973 36889982
    36639999 36500021 36470180=20



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