• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0544

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 5 18:08:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 051808
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051807=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-052030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0544
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

    Areas affected...east-central CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051807Z - 052030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-65 mph) and marginally severe
    hail (1.0-1.25 inches in diameter) are possible with the stronger
    storms later this afternoon (2pm-6pm MDT).

    DISCUSSION...Visible and water-vapor satellite imagery show a
    mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast through northern
    portions of CO while a developing area of convection slowly
    intensifies near the CO Front Range. The activity near Denver and
    Ft. Collins as of 12pm MDT, will gradually move southeastward with
    additional storm development likely to develop within a cumulus
    field near the Palmer Divide. The latest forecast soundings
    indicate convective temperatures have been breached with
    temperatures in the middle 50s F. Upwards of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE is
    also noted in the forecast soundings (Limon, CO in particular) with
    an inverted-v profile and 35-kt effective shear. The steep lapse
    rate profile will support the transfer of stronger gusts to the
    surface once mature thunderstorm cores become established and a
    marginally severe hail risk could accompany the strongest updrafts.=20
    Given the overall marginally severe intensity/coverage of a few
    severe storms, a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
    anticipated.

    ..Smith.. 05/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!otRZ_ytRueEKWW-VyYLj68HG6WJlITbziiEdmjDqs9CGo7EVi3PhuAE2jISidS8eo3Ds5-Er$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37930371 39460472 40060415 39860333 39350213 38660183
    37880263 37930371=20



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