• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0543

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 5 16:59:14 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1620233959-1996-7373
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 051659
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051658=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-051930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0543
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southeast PA...Far Southern NJ...Delmarva Peninsula...DC...Central/Eastern MD...Eastern VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051658Z - 051930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
    as thunderstorms developing along a southeastward-moving cold front.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over east-central
    PA, with a cold front extending southwestward across central MD and
    through central and southwest VA. Air mass ahead of this front
    continues to gradually destabilize as temperatures rise into the mid
    70s and upper 80s across MD and VA. Slightly cooler temperatures are
    in place across southeast PA where cloudiness has limited heating.
    This diurnal heating is occurring amid mid 60s dewpoints, resulting
    in moderate instability despite the modest mid-level lapse rates.=20

    General expectation is for isolated to widely scattered
    thunderstorms to develop along the front as it continues
    southeastward this afternoon. Low-level flow is relatively modest
    but deep-layer flow remains strong, contributing to fast storm
    motion and the potential for a few strong, convectively augmented
    downdrafts.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!um6D2A2oTZqk0ezYb_VqRfybonsqJHPckBeIPpMqBEnoWkW5qDuwY_ADcr5sVtuac7aZRg6s$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 39537710 40097629 39727508 38587495 37377570 36817633
    36817788 37887865 39537710=20



    ------------=_1620233959-1996-7373
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1620233959-1996-7373--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 5 17:04:16 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1620234261-1996-7374
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 051704
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051703 COR
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-051930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0543
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1203 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southeast PA...Far Southern NJ...Delmarva Peninsula...DC...Central/Eastern MD...Eastern VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051703Z - 051930Z

    CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT TEMPERATURE REFERENCE IN FIRST PARAGRAPH.

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
    as thunderstorms developing along a southeastward-moving cold front.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over east-central
    PA, with a cold front extending southwestward across central MD and
    through central and southwest VA. Air mass ahead of this front
    continues to gradually destabilize as temperatures rise into the
    upper 70s and low 80s across MD and VA. Slightly cooler temperatures
    are in place across southeast PA where cloudiness has limited
    heating. This diurnal heating is occurring amid mid 60s dewpoints,
    resulting in moderate instability despite the modest mid-level lapse
    rates.=20

    General expectation is for isolated to widely scattered
    thunderstorms to develop along the front as it continues
    southeastward this afternoon. Low-level flow is relatively modest
    but deep-layer flow remains strong, contributing to fast storm
    motion and the potential for a few strong, convectively augmented
    downdrafts.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sHVkdLBWswkSxAlB7rLoAVckhibJMakJKwfY7rTRuyOr_0I-vegBhqWgYQXMhjgWH83Tm7QY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 39537710 40097629 39727508 38587495 37377570 36817633
    36817788 37887865 39537710=20



    ------------=_1620234261-1996-7374
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1620234261-1996-7374--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)