Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021
Areas affected...portions of eastern South Carolina
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 150...
Valid 042359Z - 050100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 150
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms along the I-95 corridor of eastern South
Carolina will pose a risk for isolated damaging winds and marginally
severe hail over the next hour. A general weakening trend is
expected to continue.
DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, radar and satellite trends across the
Carolinas have shown a general weakening of ongoing convection. A
couple of severe storms remain east of I-95 in South Carolina.
Recent storm reports confirm these storms are still capable of
producing mainly severe wind gusts as they move off to the
northeast. SPC mesoanalysis shows mixed-layer inhibition of -100 to
-150 J/kg slowly increasing across the area with the loss of diurnal
heating and convective overturning from previous bands of storms.
Hi-res guidance also agrees with the observed weakening trend,
supporting moderate to high confidence that the severe weather risk
will continue to gradually decay early this evening and after
sunset. Until then, storms will remain capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts given an unstable (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and
weakly sheared environment.
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