• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0540

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 5 00:00:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 050000
    SPC MCD 042359=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0540
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0659 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 150...

    Valid 042359Z - 050100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 150

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms along the I-95 corridor of eastern South
    Carolina will pose a risk for isolated damaging winds and marginally
    severe hail over the next hour. A general weakening trend is
    expected to continue.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, radar and satellite trends across the
    Carolinas have shown a general weakening of ongoing convection. A
    couple of severe storms remain east of I-95 in South Carolina.
    Recent storm reports confirm these storms are still capable of
    producing mainly severe wind gusts as they move off to the
    northeast. SPC mesoanalysis shows mixed-layer inhibition of -100 to
    -150 J/kg slowly increasing across the area with the loss of diurnal
    heating and convective overturning from previous bands of storms.
    Hi-res guidance also agrees with the observed weakening trend,
    supporting moderate to high confidence that the severe weather risk
    will continue to gradually decay early this evening and after
    sunset. Until then, storms will remain capable of producing isolated
    damaging wind gusts given an unstable (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and
    weakly sheared environment.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sxwplHqgVqZganX8GQazK9LFdYmTGJzzuFo2FJB-7LSwK5-3Ag5NIapIoGEvA7qCYemA7hL9$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33607921 33267952 32897995 32968059 33288070 33728028
    34147942 34107917 33947904 33607921=20

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