• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0538

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 22:20:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042220
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042220=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-042345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0538
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0520 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southeastern
    AL...and southern/western GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 042220Z - 042345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe/damaging wind threat is expected to continue into
    the evening with a line of storms moving eastward. Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...An organized QLCS will move eastward across parts of southern/central AL through the remainder of the afternoon and into
    the early evening. A moist and unstable airmass exists downstream of
    this convection, and to the south of an outflow boundary where
    additional, non-severe storms have formed. As large-scale ascent and
    35-40 kt of mid-level flow associated with an upper trough now over
    the lower MS Valley continues to overspread AL/GA and the FL
    Panhandle, the QLCS should maintain its intensity through much of
    the evening. Given the linear nature of this ongoing convection and
    steep low-level lapse rates owing to diurnal heating, scattered
    damaging downdraft winds should be the main threat. The low-level
    flow is not overly strong, and appears mostly veered to
    southwesterly per recent surface observations and area VWPs.
    Accordingly, any tornado threat should remain rather brief/isolated.
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed to address
    the damaging wind threat.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vuSlde0KT7N1LGE9enVXsGwQjw-mZQC3UzCZbXcROr3FXbMzL63cGGl6yjSq0Nrh_AGpn10r$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30378670 31338653 32988548 32888485 32968399 33078352
    31898328 31148356 30578404 30048475 29828535 30078572
    30298620 30378670=20



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