• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0537

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 21:52:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042152=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-042245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0537
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0452 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...southeastern Virginia and extreme northern North
    Carolina.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148...

    Valid 042152Z - 042245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms have become increasingly organized
    over the last half hour suggesting an increased potential for severe
    weather. WW148 may need to be locally extended.

    DISCUSSION...2130z radar shows some consolidation of updrafts and a
    merging of outflow with ongoing storms to the north occurring with
    the scattered convection along and west of the I-95 corridor through
    southern Virginia. Hi-res model guidance and observation trends
    suggest this will likely continue as storms move into an
    increasingly unstable and moderately sheared environment. A local
    maximum (1500-2000 J/kg) of MLCAPE near the eastern coast will
    likely continue to support robust updraft development over the next
    1 to 2 hours. Storm organization in the form of clusters and short
    line segments from 20-30 kts of effective shear will continue to
    pose a risk for damaging wind gusts before storms move offshore
    around 23-00z. A local extension of WW148 southward may be needed to
    cover the evolving severe threat.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!thQ9s7069vqV3zuSN7yoW78SLLgji30BEMAQgFNaHpVYtNL-0KMDP4ClVQRv67kDCBDUe5Tt$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

    LAT...LON 36467592 36447649 36457715 36507741 36597764 36967764
    37247749 37407724 37537691 37367623 37097584 36847575
    36597574 36467592=20



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