• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0536

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 4 21:47:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042147
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042146=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0536
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0446 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern LA...southern MS...southern/central AL...and the far western FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

    Valid 042146Z - 042315Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

    SUMMARY...A widespread damaging wind threat will continue with a
    bowing line of storms moving eastward. Isolated embedded tornadoes
    also remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow will move quickly eastward late
    this afternoon from from southeastern LA/southern MS into
    southern/central AL over the next couple of hours. The most
    progressive portion of this line is advancing around 40-45 kt into
    west-central AL as of 2145Z. Other storms have formed along an
    outflow boundary extending from near Tuscaloosa to just south of
    Birmingham to near Auburn AL. This outflow boundary will likely
    serve as the northern limit to any substantial severe threat. Given
    the current intensity of the bowing complex, the presence of
    moderate to locally strong instability downstream (MLCAPE generally
    2000-2500 J/kg), sufficient deep-layer shear, and steepened
    low-level lapse rates from diurnal heating, widespread
    severe/damaging winds of 60-70+ mph will remain the primary severe
    threat in the short term. Although low-level winds are not very
    strong ahead of the ongoing severe convection, up to 100 m2/s2 of
    0-1 km SRH may still support some potential for embedded low-level
    circulations and a brief/isolated tornado threat.

    ..Gleason.. 05/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s5tPNtusaZ3lzXHC0qqnJIKoYBnYloClSWO96Pqf98yxTnnAGVGje-pohf3Gr6XQ6-CeJNu-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30749079 31598960 32258842 33268783 33008574 32698585
    31328633 30468677 30188959 30339014 30749079=20



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