Mesoscale Discussion 0536
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021
Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern LA...southern MS...southern/central AL...and the far western FL Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...
Valid 042146Z - 042315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.
SUMMARY...A widespread damaging wind threat will continue with a
bowing line of storms moving eastward. Isolated embedded tornadoes
also remain possible.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow will move quickly eastward late
this afternoon from from southeastern LA/southern MS into
southern/central AL over the next couple of hours. The most
progressive portion of this line is advancing around 40-45 kt into
west-central AL as of 2145Z. Other storms have formed along an
outflow boundary extending from near Tuscaloosa to just south of
Birmingham to near Auburn AL. This outflow boundary will likely
serve as the northern limit to any substantial severe threat. Given
the current intensity of the bowing complex, the presence of
moderate to locally strong instability downstream (MLCAPE generally
2000-2500 J/kg), sufficient deep-layer shear, and steepened
low-level lapse rates from diurnal heating, widespread
severe/damaging winds of 60-70+ mph will remain the primary severe
threat in the short term. Although low-level winds are not very
strong ahead of the ongoing severe convection, up to 100 m2/s2 of
0-1 km SRH may still support some potential for embedded low-level
circulations and a brief/isolated tornado threat.
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